The 30% Kickstarter project “Tipping Point”

One of the most fascinating aspects of Kickstarter is the project’s “tipping point,” the point at which a project has enough momentum that it will most likely be completed. In Yancey Strickler’s Creative Mornings presentation, he explains how a project that reaches 30% funding has a 90% chance of being successfully completed.

I learned of the 30% tipping point during my campaign for Identifying Nelson. At the time I found it hard to believe. I couldn’t imagine how a project with 70% of its funding goal left had such a good chance of making it. Even when the project passed its tipping point, I was still skeptical. But to my amazement we made it.

Initially, I thought the 30% tipping point had to do with having a critical mass of backers. Once a project got enough backers to fund 30%, then that group would bring in the rest of the backers. It turns out that the number of backers it takes to reach 30% is quite low. During A Kickstarter’s Guide it was only 16 people. Each person would have had to bring in three to four more people. While this might have happened, I think critical mass isn’t the only factor in play.

More recently, I began to think that there could be a psychological barrier before a project is 30% funded. When viewing the little green progress bar, a project with less than 30% funding looks like it won’t make it. Once that barrier is broken, people are more likely to jump on board. One thing that is clear about Kickstarter. People like to support projects that are going to make it. Maybe there is something about the 30% mark that subconsciously signals eventual success.

We may never know why 30% is such an important number, but it almost doesn’t matter. What matters is getting to that mark as quickly as possible. Try your hardest to get to 30%. Then you can ease off a bit until you need to do a big push at the end.


A Kickstart’s Guide to Kickstarter TOC:

pssst…you can read all of this offline by downloading the e-book.

Introduction
A Kickstarter’s Guide to Kickstarter: Introduction
How Kickstarter “Kickstartered” it’s own website
Understanding Kickstarter
The Basics of Kickstarter
Kickstarter is an updated version of the Parton Model
Kickstarter is like girl scout cookies…without the calories!
Make sure your project has an ending
Some additional benefits to running a Kickstarter project
Perry Chan’s Six Principles on why Kickstarter projects are successful
Yancey’s thoughts on getting funded
Brainstorming Your Project
What is this damn thing about?
Simplify your project for success
Is your project a Purple Cow?
Making Lemonade And Telling A Good Story
Reward The Patrons
Naming Your Kickstarter Project
Doing Your Homework
Before you launch, do your homework
No one cares about you
Some People Care About You
Who is Your Audience?
Where is Your Audience?
Resonating With Your Audience
Crossing Chasms
What Will it Cost?
Understanding Profit Margin and Costs
Setting Your Goals
Make or Break Decisions
Running the Numbers
Focus on what you need
Reasonable funding goals
Why be Reasonable?
How long your campaign runs depends on one thing, momentum
30 days or less
Managing Deadlines
Going for the BIG bucks
The Allure of a Large Backer
Pricing theory, thoughts about pricing your Kickstarter rewards
The Paradox of Choice
Crafting Your Pitch
Creating a compelling pitch for your Kickstarter project
Four questions people want answered when visiting your Kickstarter page.
Show some credibility to get more backers
Clarity is your friend
How to ask for Support
Kickstarter is a video-driven site
Examples of great pitch videos
Launching Your Project
Launching your project
How to track the progress of your Kickstarter campaign
The 30% Kickstarter project “Tipping Point”
Conclusion
How to engage an audience with a Kickstarter project: Idea & Story

How to track the progress of your Kickstarter campaign

Now that your campaign is underway, how do you know if it’s going well or not? Here are some of the things I do.

The Short Link

Every Kickstarter project page has a short link. This is smaller version of its web address. It can be found on your main project page, below the picture/video for your project. You will see it to the right of the “<> EMBED” button.

For example the full address for this project is:

http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/identifyingnelson/a-kickstarters-guide-to-kickstarter

The short link is:

http://kck.st/ocJoTE

When you are promoting your project, you will want to use the short link as often as possible. Not only is it easier to share, but it can be used to calculate some important metrics about your project.

The only downside is that it doesn’t include kickstarter.com in the address. Some people might be hesitant to click on the short link, because they don’t know where it is taking them. However, if you are the one sharing it, and they trust you, then you should have no problem.

Conversion Rate

The conversion rate can be a powerful tool in determining the reach of your campaign and how much work you still have to do. This works best if you have been using your project short link during the whole campaign. WARNING: This will require a little math, but nothing too complicated.

First, find the total number of clicks the project is getting, by adding a + sign to the end of the short link.

Like this: http://kck.st/ocJoTE+

This will take you to an info page for bitly.com, which creates and hosts all of Kickstarter’s short links. Towards the top of the page, there are two numbers, one in bold, which represent the number of clicks the link is getting. You will want to use the number NOT in bold This can be found next to the words: “All clicks on the aggregate bitly link”

Next you will need the number of people backing your project from the Kickstarter project page. Divide the number of backers by the total number of clicks your short link has received. This will be the conversation rate. For example, if a project has 14 backers and 180 clicks then the conversion rate is 7%.

14 Backers / 180 Clicks = 7% Conversion rate

Average Pledge Amount

The next important metric is the average amount pledged. This will help you figure out, on average, what each person is giving to the project. Later it will help you figure out how many backers you still need.

Take the amount pledged towards your project so far, and divide that by the number of backers. If your project has raised $245 from 14 backers, then the average pledge is $17.50

$245 Pledged / 14 Backers = $17.50 per backer

Remaining Views and Backers

Next you want to calculate the remaining views in order to get enough backers to meet your minimum funding goal.

Divide the remaining pledge amount by the average pledge amount. If your goal is $900, and you have raised $245, then you still need $655. Take this remaining amount, and divide that by the average pledge amount. So, if the average pledge amount is $17.50, then you need 38 more backers to finish the project. (I rounded up, since you don’t want to underestimate the number of backers you need.)

$900 Goal – $245 Pledged = $655 Remaining
$655 Remaining / $17.50 Avg. Pledge = 38 Backers

Once you know how many backers you still need, you can use the conversion rate to figure out how many views you need to get those backers.

Take the number of people you still need, and multiply it by the conversion rate. In this example, there are 38 backers remaining and a 7% conversion rate. This means the project will need close to 542 clicks to get the project funded.

38 Backers Remaining * 7% Conversion Rate = 542 Clicks

Fuzzy Math

These numbers are not exact, of course. They depend on a number of factors. As your project evolves, the numbers will change, so you can recalculate them as often as you need. These are just indicators of how your campaign is going. Your might post the link somewhere and get 500 more clicks, but if it’s the wrong 500 people, then you will not meet your goal. These metrics will give you valuable feedback, but they are not predictive of the outcome.

However, I have found these numbers to be very relevant and helpful. The example above uses numbers taken from my campaign for A Kickstarter’s Guide. If you did all the math, then you may have realized 54 backers were needed to get the project funded. The actual number, ended up being 56 backers. Not bad at all.


A Kickstart’s Guide to Kickstarter TOC:

pssst…you can read all of this offline by downloading the e-book.

Introduction
A Kickstarter’s Guide to Kickstarter: Introduction
How Kickstarter “Kickstartered” it’s own website
Understanding Kickstarter
The Basics of Kickstarter
Kickstarter is an updated version of the Parton Model
Kickstarter is like girl scout cookies…without the calories!
Make sure your project has an ending
Some additional benefits to running a Kickstarter project
Perry Chan’s Six Principles on why Kickstarter projects are successful
Yancey’s thoughts on getting funded
Brainstorming Your Project
What is this damn thing about?
Simplify your project for success
Is your project a Purple Cow?
Making Lemonade And Telling A Good Story
Reward The Patrons
Naming Your Kickstarter Project
Doing Your Homework
Before you launch, do your homework
No one cares about you
Some People Care About You
Who is Your Audience?
Where is Your Audience?
Resonating With Your Audience
Crossing Chasms
What Will it Cost?
Understanding Profit Margin and Costs
Setting Your Goals
Make or Break Decisions
Running the Numbers
Focus on what you need
Reasonable funding goals
Why be Reasonable?
How long your campaign runs depends on one thing, momentum
30 days or less
Managing Deadlines
Going for the BIG bucks
The Allure of a Large Backer
Pricing theory, thoughts about pricing your Kickstarter rewards
The Paradox of Choice
Crafting Your Pitch
Creating a compelling pitch for your Kickstarter project
Four questions people want answered when visiting your Kickstarter page.
Show some credibility to get more backers
Clarity is your friend
How to ask for Support
Kickstarter is a video-driven site
Examples of great pitch videos
Launching Your Project
Launching your project
How to track the progress of your Kickstarter campaign
The 30% Kickstarter project “Tipping Point”
Conclusion
How to engage an audience with a Kickstarter project: Idea & Story

Launching your project

Most people think you launch a project when it goes live on the Kickstarter site. However, you may want to consider doing a soft launch before actually launching the project.

A soft launch, involves building awareness and gaining support for an idea before you are ready to start. This can be an important part to a successful campaign that is often over looked.

The actual launch is when you finally push the button on Kickstarter and your project is live. Once your project is launched you will use the contacts built up during the soft launch to help promote the project.

Soft Launch

The soft launch is a concept I came across while researching this guide. In his post 15 steps for a successful Kickstarter Project Gary M. Sarli talks about the idea of a soft launch.

“(7) Do a soft launch for the project on your website and via social media at least 30 days before you start the actual Kickstarter project. You want to get the word out and get people interested and talking before you start the fundraising drive itself. At this stage, you’ll need to be able to tell people firm dates for the start and end of the Kickstarter drive, reward levels for backers, and so forth; use your own website as the central location for this because you won’t have a Kickstarter page to send people to until later.”

“Go to any message boards you frequent to post about the project (but don’t be spammy — if you don’t regularly post somewhere, don’t announce in that forum). Include links to the project in your message board profile and signature.”

“There are plenty of other websites and blogs that might be interested, so don’t be shy about getting in touch with them to tell them about the project (perhaps as a formal press release). For example, if doing a roleplaying game project, you might submit a short press release to ENWorld to see if they’ll include it in their news feed for the day.”

“Get all your friends and colleagues on board; the more voices you can get talking about the project, the better your odds will be.”

Doing a soft launch is something I have not been very good at. For both, Identifying Nelson, and A Kickstarter’s Guide, I did not spend enough time reaching out to people before they launched. This meant that during my campaigns, I was forced to spend a lot of time looking for an audience, instead of promoting the project. Not only is this stressful, but finding the right audience can take a long time. Trying to do it during a campaign is very challenging.

Reach Out

By now you should have found where your audience communicates and become part of that community. Then you should start talking with them about the project and when it will go live. Share with them your idea and let them know you are thinking of running it as Kickstarter campaign. They may like it or they may hate it. Either way, take it with a grain of salt. I’ve had plenty of people love my ideas and then never back my projects. Conversely people might not understand what you are trying to do until it is live. The point is to start the conversation as early as possible.

Actual Launch

Once you have reached out to your communities, it is time to push the button and go for it!

At this point your nerves will probably start to “kick in” and you will be wondering if you got everything right. There is only one way to find out. Launch.

“Real artists ship.” – Steve Jobs

Best Time to Launch

I’m not sure if it matters. Just know that the campaign ends at the same time that you press the button. So, if you push it at 2 a.m., your campaign ends at 2 a.m.

During A Kickstarter’s Guide I realized that in the future I am going to want my campaign to end at night. This is because I had difficulty falling asleep knowing my campaign was ending in the morning. The project was already funded, but I was so excited to see the result that I just couldn’t fall asleep. Next time, I will be sure to start my project at night so it will finish before I go to bed.

Find The Fans

When you start your campaign, you will want to be on the lookout for your fans. They are the people who are going to go out of their way to make your project successful. They will help spread the word by writing on your behalf. They will get their friends and family to back the project. They will help you “cross the chasm.”

During my first campaign, Identifying Nelson, my friend Caroline was my biggest fan. She went out of her way to email friends, get her family on board, and anything else she could think of. Without her, I’m pretty sure my project would not have succeeded. Caroline, if you are reading this, thank you!

How Does it Spread?

Once the project has launched, pay attention to where people are talking about it. During my first campaign, Facebook was the most effective marketing tool. During my second, it was Twitter and Kickstarter.com. If you have been doing your homework, you should have an idea of where your audience hangs out. Concentrate on the sites and methods that gain the most traction. Don’t try to promote your project on every medium because you think that’s what you need to do. If your audience isn’t on Twitter, then don’t post as often. Posting on networks that aren’t part of your audience annoys people, makes Kickstarter look bad, and won’t get your project funded.

Project Updates

These are a very useful both during and after the campaign. During the campaign, you can post about its progress. It’s a great way to keep your backers involved and enlist their additional support. You can thank them, and ask them to share the project with their networks. After the campaign is over, you can keep in touch with them about the project and let them know the status of their rewards.

Project updates are great. Use them! During Identifying Nelson I don’t think I used them enough. We didn’t write our first update until halfway through the campaign. You don’t need to write updates if you don’t have anything to say, but you want to engage the people who backed you. Even if its just to say thank you. In fact, you can’t say thank you often enough.


A Kickstart’s Guide to Kickstarter TOC:

pssst…you can read all of this offline by downloading the e-book.

Introduction
A Kickstarter’s Guide to Kickstarter: Introduction
How Kickstarter “Kickstartered” it’s own website
Understanding Kickstarter
The Basics of Kickstarter
Kickstarter is an updated version of the Parton Model
Kickstarter is like girl scout cookies…without the calories!
Make sure your project has an ending
Some additional benefits to running a Kickstarter project
Perry Chan’s Six Principles on why Kickstarter projects are successful
Yancey’s thoughts on getting funded
Brainstorming Your Project
What is this damn thing about?
Simplify your project for success
Is your project a Purple Cow?
Making Lemonade And Telling A Good Story
Reward The Patrons
Naming Your Kickstarter Project
Doing Your Homework
Before you launch, do your homework
No one cares about you
Some People Care About You
Who is Your Audience?
Where is Your Audience?
Resonating With Your Audience
Crossing Chasms
What Will it Cost?
Understanding Profit Margin and Costs
Setting Your Goals
Make or Break Decisions
Running the Numbers
Focus on what you need
Reasonable funding goals
Why be Reasonable?
How long your campaign runs depends on one thing, momentum
30 days or less
Managing Deadlines
Going for the BIG bucks
The Allure of a Large Backer
Pricing theory, thoughts about pricing your Kickstarter rewards
The Paradox of Choice
Crafting Your Pitch
Creating a compelling pitch for your Kickstarter project
Four questions people want answered when visiting your Kickstarter page.
Show some credibility to get more backers
Clarity is your friend
How to ask for Support
Kickstarter is a video-driven site
Examples of great pitch videos
Launching Your Project
Launching your project
How to track the progress of your Kickstarter campaign
The 30% Kickstarter project “Tipping Point”
Conclusion
How to engage an audience with a Kickstarter project: Idea & Story