The 30% Kickstarter project “Tipping Point”

One of the most fascinating aspects of Kickstarter is the project’s “tipping point,” the point at which a project has enough momentum that it will most likely be completed. In Yancey Strickler’s Creative Mornings presentation, he explains how a project that reaches 30% funding has a 90% chance of being successfully completed.

I learned of the 30% tipping point during my campaign for Identifying Nelson. At the time I found it hard to believe. I couldn’t imagine how a project with 70% of its funding goal left had such a good chance of making it. Even when the project passed its tipping point, I was still skeptical. But to my amazement we made it.

Initially, I thought the 30% tipping point had to do with having a critical mass of backers. Once a project got enough backers to fund 30%, then that group would bring in the rest of the backers. It turns out that the number of backers it takes to reach 30% is quite low. During A Kickstarter’s Guide it was only 16 people. Each person would have had to bring in three to four more people. While this might have happened, I think critical mass isn’t the only factor in play.

More recently, I began to think that there could be a psychological barrier before a project is 30% funded. When viewing the little green progress bar, a project with less than 30% funding looks like it won’t make it. Once that barrier is broken, people are more likely to jump on board. One thing that is clear about Kickstarter. People like to support projects that are going to make it. Maybe there is something about the 30% mark that subconsciously signals eventual success.

We may never know why 30% is such an important number, but it almost doesn’t matter. What matters is getting to that mark as quickly as possible. Try your hardest to get to 30%. Then you can ease off a bit until you need to do a big push at the end.

A Kickstart’s Guide to Kickstarter TOC:

pssst…you can read all of this offline by downloading the e-book.